Update
Polymarket Reform Bitcoin Contracts with 60-Second Averages
Polymarket has updated its Bitcoin contract trading to use 60-second averages for opening and closing prices. Researcher Guangzhe Wang found that the final-10-second share of Binance volume fell from 5.68% under the old snapshot system to 3.02% early on. This change is part of an August reform that altered the incentive for the settlement price. The new design requires a different risk assessment from the single-snapshot rule examined in earlier research. The Oct. 27 Bitcoin market, covering 12:20-12:25 p.m. ET, uses Chainlink’s BTC/USD 60-second time-weighted average price (TWAP) as its resolution source.