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Bitcoin and 2026 Midterms: What If Trump Loses Control of Congress?
Bitcoin often dips around U.S. midterm elections, and traders are watching to see if history repeats itself in 2026. The election will decide who controls the House and Senate during President Donald Trump's final two years in office. Democrats are expected to have a strong chance of winning the House, while the Senate race remains close. A Democratic-controlled House could slow down crypto legislation and increase investigations into the Trump administration's crypto-related business interests, making it harder for the government to pass crypto-friendly laws. The CLARITY Act, aimed at creating clear federal rules for digital asset markets, has faced delays due to Democrats' concerns about ethics rules and Trump's crypto interests. A Democratic takeover of Congress could make an agreement on crypto legislation more difficult, although bipartisan cooperation remains possible. Controlling both the House and Senate would give Democrats great influence over crypto policy and increase pressure on the Trump administration. However, Republicans retaining control of Congress means crypto-friendly legislation will move forward more easily, boosting investor confidence. Bitcoin has fallen around past U.S. midterm elections, with drops of about 50% and 25% after the 2018 and 2022 elections, respectively, during crypto bear markets.