Update
Bitcoin Approaches Election-Related Bear Market Bottom
Bitcoin is approaching a period that has historically coincided with major bear-market bottoms, following midterm elections. Bitcoin bottomed in January 2015, December 2018, and November 2022, shortly after the preceding midterms. This year, Bitcoin's lowest price came much earlier, around $57,850 in July, and has since recovered to around $81,455. Historically, Bitcoin has fallen approximately 29% in the six months before the 2018 midterms and 37% before the 2022 vote. The broader market, as represented by the Invesco QQQ Trust, has also experienced weakness around midterms, with a 23% decline in the six months before the 2018 vote and a 17% decline in the three months before the 2022 vote. Bitcoin and QQQ are both down about 6% over the past 30 days, but Bitcoin has gained 26% over the past 90 days.