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Midterms Test Markets Against Pollsters
In 2024, election prediction markets became legal in the U.S. a month before the presidential vote. Combined monthly trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket more than doubled from $26 billion in May to $53 billion in July, with more than $30 million traded on which party will win the House and Senate. Kalshi's Midterms Hub launched in June puts traders' odds for individual races alongside polling averages. Chuck Todd, former NBC News political director, is hosting NEXTPredict two weeks before the vote, and has yet to pick a side.