Price Prediction
How Event Contract Prices Translate into Implied Probabilities
Gate Event Contracts range from 0.01 to 0.99 USDT. A contract trading at 0.65 USDT may suggest a market-implied probability of around 65%. However, the article explains that price does not necessarily represent the true probability of an outcome. The blog explores how event contract prices are formed, driven by multiple forces including buyers and sellers, arbitrage, liquidity, and new information.