News
Fed Rate Cuts Off the Table for October
The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that rate cuts are no longer priced in for the October 28, 2026, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Markets assign an 87.3% probability to no change and a 12.7% probability of a 25-basis-point increase to 4.00% - 4.25%. Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target is the primary reason. As of mid-October, Bitcoin has pulled back to the low of $81,000 due to rising rate-hike expectations and other risk-off conditions. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and typically strengthen the US dollar, weighing on crypto prices. If the hike odds continue to rise or stay elevated before the FOMC meeting, BTC could stay range-bound or fall further, especially if yields and the dollar strengthen. A strengthening US dollar also puts pressure on gold, as the precious metal is traded globally in dollars and becomes more expensive for holders using other currencies.