Funding
NEXTPredict Hedges Conference with Prediction Market
NEXTPredict, a conference organization, has hedged its upcoming conference on a prediction market by paying a $12,000 premium for contracts that would return around $3 million if more than half of flights at John F. Kennedy International Airport are canceled on October 21. The contracts, executed through Kalshi with Susquehanna as the market maker, settle on whether more than half of flights scheduled to land at JFK are canceled. The $3 million represents the organizer's total investment in the event. The conference, scheduled for October 22-23 at Convene in Hudson Yards, aims to cover potential disruptions such as flight cancellations and other events that could impact the event. NEXTPredict's co-founder and managing director, Pierre Lindh, explained that the trade was designed as a proxy for airport disruption, as a 50% flight cancellation at JFK would indicate significant global events. The conference has faced similar challenges in the past, including a blizzard affecting the March show and conflict in the Middle East impacting the May event. By using a prediction market, NEXTPredict aims to provide a more flexible and potentially faster resolution to insurance claims, as the market can determine if the conditions of the contract have been met, unlike traditional event insurance which may not trigger if the conference itself goes ahead.