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1960 Population Model Predicted 2026 Overpopulation Doomsday, Now Discredited
The 1960 paper by mathematician Heinz von Foerster and colleagues published in Science presented a hyper‑hyperbolic population‑growth model that mathematically diverged to infinity. The model’s singularity was fixed to 13 November 2026, implying an overpopulation “doomsday.” The article notes that the world population is about 8.3 billion in 2025 and that United Nations projections now expect a peak near 10 billion in the 2080s, far later than the original forecast. The piece explains that the early model ignored factors such as fertility decline, education, urbanisation and women’s workforce participation. It also mentions that the prediction resurfaces online periodically and is cited as an example of overly simplistic curve‑fitting. The UN outlook and newer research highlight the limitations of the 1960 equation.