Funding
Anthropic's Inference Business Could Reach High Margins, SemiAnalysis Estimates
SemiAnalysis, in a report published in early October 2026, estimated that Anthropic's inference business could achieve margins as high as 88% once compute costs are accounted for. The research suggests that API services, which account for roughly 75-85% of Anthropic's annual recurring revenue, could yield margins exceeding 80%. Subscription users, which make up around 10% of revenue but consume more than 40% of inference compute, are estimated to yield compute margins of approximately 50%. The analysis indicates that subscriptions reduce blended revenue per megawatt by approximately $36 million, but do not turn negative on a gross-margin basis under realistic utilization conditions. Anthropic's overall gross margins were negative 94% in 2024, but improved to the mid-60% range by mid-2026. The improvement is attributed to optimization in inference operations. The findings suggest that Anthropic may reach sustained profitability earlier than its peers, as it leans API-first and usage-based, unlike OpenAI which relies on a larger free-user base. The subscription dynamics are sensitive to changes in how people use the product segment, which uses more than 40% of compute while bringing in roughly 10% of revenue. The article was edited by Diego Almada Lopez and highlights the potential for Anthropic to achieve high margins in its inference business, impacting its overall profitability and investment in AI sectors.