Update
Treasury Spending and Bitcoin Liquidity
The US Treasury’s November 4 plan suggests a possible December respite for Bitcoin liquidity, with projected cash peaks near $1,025 billion in late November and late January. The Treasury’s operating account at the Federal Reserve can return reserves to banks, but December’s net cash movement is the first test of the funding case. The Treasury estimates a $1,025 billion balance at the end of December, with a $1 trillion balance at the end of March 2027. The bill schedule includes a seasonal mechanism, with reduced shorter-dated bill auction sizes expected around month-end and increased auction sizes across the bill curve in January.