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Prediction markets outperformed polls in 2024 US midterms
Analysis shows Kalshi and Polymarket gave more accurate odds than traditional polls and media, correctly forecasting Senate and House races such as Scott DesJarlais’s loss and high Latino turnout impacts. Professional traders, including a team of 80 at Susquehanna, appear to be driving tighter pricing, reducing market volatility. Nate Silver’s model also aligned with market moves, while major networks lagged behind market signals.