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History of US Election Betting
Election betting dates back to 1796, with early wagers like Joab Griswold’s bet on William Cooper. Betting peaked in 1916 with $10 million wagered, then declined after Gallup’s polls. Modern prediction markets have brokered over $1.4 billion on the 2024 US midterms and could exceed $10 billion for the 2028 election. New York law still bars bettors from voting.