Update
Kalshi Senate Contracts Settlement Risk
Kalshi’s Senate contracts can settle on different answers to the same election, exposing the package to another risk. At an Oct. 28 snapshot, a four-contract hedge cost $3.02 before fees, with a $3 gross payout if the control and seat-count outcomes align. The Senate-control market had a 64.5% midpoint at 22:11:45 UTC, while the normalized estimate for the Democratic seat-count markets put the chance of 51 or more seats at about 62.1%. The four purchase quotes already exceeded the conditional payout by two cents, and the contracts’ different settlement provisions left a separate risk.